Model accuracy
Earlier matches keep the historical replay estimate; new matches use locked pre-kickoff snapshots. The displayed pick is the highest of home win, draw, and away win.
Top-pick result accuracy61.7%37/60 correct
Scored matches606 locked · 54 backfilled
Brier score0.55Lower is better
Log loss0.92Lower is better
Exact scores5.0%3/60 hit
Top-pick accuracy scores only the single highest-probability result. The model still estimates home, draw, and away probabilities; Brier score and log loss evaluate that full probability distribution.
Result distribution
OutcomePredictedActual
Home wins3931
Draws016
Away wins2113
Scoring quality
Mean goal error1.89Total home plus away xG error per match
Exact-score misses573/60 exact scorelines hit
Unscored finals0Completed matches missing a prediction snapshot
Latest scored
| Match | Prediction | Actual | Most likely score | xG | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WrongAustralia43.8% · locked | 0-0Draw | 1-112.7% scoreline chance | 1.08-1.382.46 goal error | 0.81 | 1.31 | |
| WrongUSA43.3% · locked | 3-2Türkiye | 1-112.8% scoreline chance | 1.09-1.372.54 goal error | 0.75 | 1.21 | |
| RightNetherlands73.0% · locked | 1-3Netherlands | 0-213.7% scoreline chance | 0.67-2.231.11 goal error | 0.11 | 0.32 | |
| WrongJapan60.4% · locked | 1-1Draw | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.80-0.830.97 goal error | 0.99 | 1.48 | |
| WrongGermany48.8% · locked | 2-1Ecuador | 0-112.4% scoreline chance | 1.00-1.501.50 goal error | 0.87 | 1.38 | |
| RightCôte d'Ivoire65.0% · locked | 0-2Côte d'Ivoire | 0-112.9% scoreline chance | 0.77-1.940.83 goal error | 0.19 | 0.43 | |
| WrongKorea Republic59.2% · backfilled | 1-0South Africa | 0-113.0% scoreline chance | 0.84-1.761.92 goal error | 1.08 | 1.73 | |
| RightMexico53.9% · backfilled | 0-3Mexico | 0-112.8% scoreline chance | 0.92-1.622.30 goal error | 0.32 | 0.62 | |
| RightMorocco73.2% · backfilled | 4-2Morocco | 2-013.7% scoreline chance | 2.24-0.673.10 goal error | 0.11 | 0.31 | |
| RightBrazil67.8% · backfilled | 0-3Brazil | 0-213.0% scoreline chance | 0.73-2.031.70 goal error | 0.16 | 0.39 | |
| RightBosnia and Herzegovina41.3% · backfilled | 3-1Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1-112.9% scoreline chance | 1.33-1.121.79 goal error | 0.52 | 0.88 | |
| RightSwitzerland42.4% · backfilled | 2-1Switzerland | 1-112.8% scoreline chance | 1.35-1.100.75 goal error | 0.50 | 0.86 | |
| RightColombia75.5% · backfilled | 1-0Colombia | 2-014.0% scoreline chance | 2.33-0.641.97 goal error | 0.09 | 0.28 | |
| RightCroatia58.0% · backfilled | 0-1Croatia | 0-113.0% scoreline chance | 0.86-1.731.59 goal error | 0.27 | 0.54 | |
| WrongEngland82.2% · backfilled | 0-0Draw | 2-014.1% scoreline chance | 2.68-0.563.23 goal error | 1.45 | 2.09 | |
| RightPortugal65.1% · backfilled | 5-0Portugal | 1-012.9% scoreline chance | 1.94-0.773.82 goal error | 0.19 | 0.43 | |
| RightAlgeria55.4% · backfilled | 1-2Algeria | 0-112.9% scoreline chance | 0.90-1.660.44 goal error | 0.30 | 0.59 | |
| RightNorway44.5% · backfilled | 3-2Norway | 1-112.7% scoreline chance | 1.40-1.072.54 goal error | 0.46 | 0.81 | |
| RightFrance80.1% · backfilled | 3-0France | 2-014.2% scoreline chance | 2.56-0.581.02 goal error | 0.06 | 0.22 | |
| RightArgentina63.4% · backfilled | 2-0Argentina | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.89-0.790.90 goal error | 0.20 | 0.46 | |
| RightEgypt44.3% · backfilled | 1-3Egypt | 1-112.7% scoreline chance | 1.07-1.391.68 goal error | 0.47 | 0.81 | |
| WrongUruguay70.8% · backfilled | 2-2Draw | 2-013.5% scoreline chance | 2.14-0.691.45 goal error | 1.18 | 1.69 | |
| WrongBelgium47.3% · backfilled | 0-0Draw | 1-112.5% scoreline chance | 1.46-1.022.48 goal error | 0.84 | 1.33 | |
| RightSpain84.6% · backfilled | 4-0Spain | 2-014.0% scoreline chance | 2.83-0.531.70 goal error | 0.04 | 0.17 | |
| RightJapan68.6% · backfilled | 0-4Japan | 0-213.1% scoreline chance | 0.72-2.062.66 goal error | 0.15 | 0.38 | |
| WrongEcuador77.9% · backfilled | 0-0Draw | 2-014.1% scoreline chance | 2.45-0.613.06 goal error | 1.34 | 1.91 | |
| RightGermany60.6% · backfilled | 2-1Germany | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.80-0.830.37 goal error | 0.23 | 0.50 | |
| RightNetherlands60.4% · backfilled | 5-1Netherlands | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.80-0.833.37 goal error | 0.24 | 0.51 | |
| WrongTürkiye44.7% · backfilled | 0-1Paraguay | 1-112.7% scoreline chance | 1.40-1.061.46 goal error | 0.78 | 1.25 | |
| RightBrazil82.4% · backfilled | 3-0Brazil | 2-014.1% scoreline chance | 2.69-0.550.86 goal error | 0.05 | 0.19 | |
| RightMorocco54.4% · backfilled | 0-1Morocco | 0-112.8% scoreline chance | 0.91-1.631.55 goal error | 0.31 | 0.61 | |
| RightUSA38.0% · backfilled | 2-0USA | 1-113.0% scoreline chance | 1.25-1.191.93 goal error | 0.58 | 0.97 | |
| RightMexico43.3% · backfilled | 1-0Mexico | 1-112.8% scoreline chance | 1.37-1.091.46 goal error | 0.48 | 0.84 | |
| RightCanada67.1% · backfilled | 6-0Canada | 2-012.9% scoreline chance | 2.01-0.744.73 goal error | 0.16 | 0.40 | |
| RightSwitzerland69.4% · backfilled | 4-1Switzerland | 2-013.3% scoreline chance | 2.09-0.712.20 goal error | 0.14 | 0.36 | |
| WrongCzechia51.3% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 1-012.6% scoreline chance | 1.56-0.960.60 goal error | 0.87 | 1.37 | |
| RightColombia64.4% · backfilled | 1-3Colombia | 0-113.0% scoreline chance | 0.78-1.921.31 goal error | 0.19 | 0.44 | |
| WrongPanama51.8% · backfilled | 1-0Ghana | 0-112.7% scoreline chance | 0.95-1.571.62 goal error | 0.93 | 1.48 | |
| RightEngland48.1% · backfilled | 4-2England | 1-112.4% scoreline chance | 1.48-1.013.51 goal error | 0.40 | 0.73 | |
| WrongPortugal76.4% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 2-014.0% scoreline chance | 2.38-0.631.75 goal error | 1.30 | 1.86 | |
| RightAustria57.9% · backfilled | 3-1Austria | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.73-0.861.41 goal error | 0.27 | 0.55 | |
| RightArgentina65.9% · backfilled | 3-0Argentina | 1-012.9% scoreline chance | 1.97-0.761.79 goal error | 0.18 | 0.42 | |
| RightNorway61.5% · backfilled | 1-4Norway | 0-113.0% scoreline chance | 0.81-1.832.36 goal error | 0.22 | 0.49 | |
| RightFrance61.7% · backfilled | 3-1France | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.84-0.811.35 goal error | 0.22 | 0.48 | |
| WrongIR Iran58.2% · backfilled | 2-2Draw | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.73-0.861.41 goal error | 0.96 | 1.45 | |
| WrongUruguay65.0% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 0-112.9% scoreline chance | 0.77-1.941.17 goal error | 1.07 | 1.56 | |
| WrongBelgium61.3% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.82-0.821.01 goal error | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| WrongSpain90.2% · backfilled | 0-0Draw | 3-014.1% scoreline chance | 3.31-0.453.76 goal error | 1.67 | 2.61 | |
| RightSweden41.6% · backfilled | 5-1Sweden | 1-112.9% scoreline chance | 1.33-1.123.79 goal error | 0.51 | 0.88 | |
| WrongEcuador52.3% · backfilled | 1-0Côte d'Ivoire | 0-112.7% scoreline chance | 0.94-1.581.64 goal error | 0.94 | 1.49 | |
| WrongNetherlands38.7% · backfilled | 2-2Draw | 1-112.9% scoreline chance | 1.27-1.171.56 goal error | 0.79 | 1.30 | |
| RightGermany85.3% · backfilled | 7-1Germany | 2-013.9% scoreline chance | 2.89-0.524.60 goal error | 0.03 | 0.16 | |
| WrongTürkiye37.9% · backfilled | 2-0Australia | 1-113.0% scoreline chance | 1.19-1.252.07 goal error | 0.64 | 1.06 | |
| RightScotland53.4% · backfilled | 0-1Scotland | 0-112.8% scoreline chance | 0.93-1.611.53 goal error | 0.33 | 0.63 | |
| WrongBrazil49.4% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 1-012.4% scoreline chance | 1.51-0.990.52 goal error | 0.85 | 1.35 | |
| WrongSwitzerland75.0% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 0-213.9% scoreline chance | 0.64-2.311.67 goal error | 1.27 | 1.81 | |
| RightUSA44.7% · backfilled | 4-1USA | 1-112.7% scoreline chance | 1.40-1.062.66 goal error | 0.46 | 0.80 | |
| WrongCanada64.1% · backfilled | 1-1Draw | 1-013.0% scoreline chance | 1.91-0.781.13 goal error | 1.05 | 1.54 | |
| RightKorea Republic43.4% · backfilled | 2-1Korea Republic | 1-112.8% scoreline chance | 1.37-1.080.71 goal error | 0.48 | 0.83 | |
| RightMexico66.3% · backfilled | 2-0Mexico | 1-012.9% scoreline chance | 1.98-0.750.77 goal error | 0.17 | 0.41 |