World Cup 2026 forecast
Pre-tournament Elo ratings feed a Poisson goal model. Monte Carlo simulation plays all 12 groups, FIFA’s best-third-place allocation, and the full knockout bracket.
Last updated 54 of 72 group matches completeESPN public scoreboard · model 2026.1-calibrated
| # | Team | Group | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | J | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 91% | 75% | 54% | 37% | 24% |
| 2 | Spain | H | 100% | 85% | 11% | 4.8% | 78% | 53% | 42% | 29% | 18% |
| 3 | France | I | 100% | 79% | 21% | <0.1% | 83% | 52% | 36% | 20% | 11% |
| 4 | Brazil | C | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 63% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7.4% |
| 5 | England | L | 100% | 74% | 26% | 0.2% | 73% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5.9% |
| 6 | Colombia | K | 100% | 64% | 36% | <0.1% | 77% | 47% | 22% | 12% | 5.8% |
| 7 | Portugal | K | 100% | 36% | 64% | 0.2% | 74% | 40% | 22% | 12% | 5.4% |
| 8 | Germany | E | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 77% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Netherlands | F | 100% | 63% | 36% | 0.2% | 52% | 37% | 19% | 9.0% | 3.8% |
| 10 | Japan | F | 100% | 32% | 51% | 17% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| 11 | Belgium | G | 88% | 24% | 52% | 12% | 58% | 24% | 10% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 12 | Morocco | C | 100% | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 45% | 31% | 13% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| 13 | USA | D | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 84% | 47% | 14% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| 14 | Mexico | A | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67% | 31% | 12% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| 15 | Norway | I | 100% | 21% | 79% | <0.1% | 69% | 25% | 11% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| 16 | Switzerland | B | 100% | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 61% | 25% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 17 | Croatia | L | 98% | 20% | 49% | 29% | 42% | 18% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 18 | Canada | B | 100% | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 76% | 26% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 19 | Austria | J | 96% | <0.1% | 66% | 30% | 29% | 10% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 20 | Korea Republic | A | 94% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 94% | 43% | 20% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 21 | IR Iran | G | 74% | 30% | 21% | 23% | 37% | 14% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 22 | Uruguay | H | 38% | 14% | 6.7% | 17% | 16% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 23 | Algeria | J | 80% | <0.1% | 34% | 46% | 25% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Australia | D | 97% | <0.1% | 70% | 26% | 40% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 25 | Ecuador | E | 25% | <0.1% | 3.3% | 22% | 11% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 26 | Sweden | F | 92% | 4.2% | 13% | 75% | 16% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 27 | Egypt | G | 100% | 45% | 22% | 33% | 36% | 10% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 28 | Senegal | I | 50% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50% | 16% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 29 | Côte d'Ivoire | E | 95% | <0.1% | 86% | 8.8% | 27% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Paraguay | D | 75% | <0.1% | 30% | 46% | 20% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Uzbekistan | K | 4.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 32 | South Africa | A | 100% | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 24% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | <0.1% |
| 33 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 100% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 16% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Scotland | C | 37% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 37% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Curaçao | E | 14% | <0.1% | 11% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 36 | New Zealand | G | 12% | <0.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 37 | Cabo Verde | H | 58% | 1.7% | 47% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 38 | Saudi Arabia | H | 42% | <0.1% | 36% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 39 | Iraq | I | 2.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 40 | Congo DR | K | 28% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 28% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 41 | Ghana | L | 100% | 5.5% | 25% | 69% | 8.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 42 | CzechiaEliminated | A | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | HaitiEliminated | C | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | JordanEliminated | J | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | PanamaEliminated | L | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | QatarEliminated | B | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | TunisiaEliminated | F | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | TürkiyeEliminated | D | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Probabilities are estimated from repeated simulated tournaments. Group ties use FIFA 2026’s head-to-head-first criteria; best-third comparisons use overall records.Sorted by Champion probability.
Standings by group
Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Korea Republic | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Group B
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Group C
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Group D
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Group E
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Group F
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Group G
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 2 | IR Iran | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Belgium | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Group H
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 2 | +4 | 4 |
| 2 | Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Cabo Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Group I
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Norway | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Iraq | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Group J
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Austria | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Algeria | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Jordan | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Group K
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 2 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Portugal | 2 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Group L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 2 | Ghana | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Panama | 2 | -2 | 0 |
P: Played GD: Goal difference Pts: Points Top 2 plus the eight best third-place teams advance · Explore the third-place race